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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
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U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
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German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 12, 2007
During November, another jump in petroleum prices raised overall import prices by 2.7% after a 1.4% October increase. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.4% gain.
Petroleum prices, overall, gained 18.0% (68.7% y/y). Fuel oil prices rose 18.0% (68.7% y/y) and crude petroleum prices rose 7.5% (53.0% y/y).
Less petroleum, import prices rose 0.7% after a 0.5% rise uptick during October.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies. Why a Dollar Depreciation May Not Close the U.S. Trade Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here
Prices for industrial supplies & materials excluding petroleum surged 2.7% (7.9% y/y). The detailed import price series can be found in the Haver USINT database.
Capital goods import prices rose 0.2% (0.8% y/y). Prices of computers, peripheral and semiconductors fell 0.2% (-5.1% y/y). Less the high tech sector, capital goods prices rose an accelerated 0.3% (3.2% y/y).
Prices for imports of consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y) as apparel prices were unchanged after firm gains early this year (1.5% y/y). Prices for furniture and household items rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y).
Overall export prices were strong again and posted a 0.9% gain (6.1%y/y). Agricultural prices rose another strong 1.4% (23.0% y/y) while nonagricultural prices also were firm and rose 0.8% (4.6% y/y).
Global Savings, Investment and World Real Interest Rates is a 2007 working paper from the Royal Bank of Canada and it can be found here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 2.7% | 1.4% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
Petroleum | 9.8% | 5.1% | 53.0% | 20.6% | 37.6% | 30.5% |
Non-petroleum | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
Export- All Commodities | 0.9% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% |