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Economy in Brief

Real GDP Slowing in Turkey, Estonia and Russia Inflation Moderating in Turkey, but Rising in Estonia and Russia 
by Louise Curley December 10, 2007

Third Quarter data on the composition of Gross Domestic Product, in real and nominal terms were released today for Turkey, Estonia and Russia.

The year to year rise in the real seasonally unadjusted data for all three countries has been slowing, as can be seen in the first chart. In Turkey, for example, the real increase in the third quarter was 1.5%, down from 4.0% in the second quarter and 6.8% in the first quarter. In Estonia the deceleration was more modest. The year to year rise in real GDP in the third quarter was 6.4%, down from 7.6% in the second quarter and 10.1% in the first quarter. In Russia, the deceleration has been minimal. In of this year, the increase in real GDP was 7.9%, in the second quarter 7.8% and in the third quarter, 7.7%.

Inflation trends, as measured by the year to year increase in the deflator, have been mixed as can be seen in the second chart. Inflation has been declining in Turkey but rising in Estonia and Russia. Inflation in Turkey, which recently peaked at 9.4% in the second quarter of 2006, is now down to 7.7%. Inflation in Estonia in the third quarter was 9.6%, compared with 9.5% in the second quarter and 8.6%in the first quarter. And in Russia, inflation almost doubled from 7.5% in the first quarter of this year to 13.4% in the third quarter.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
 (Y/Y % Chg) 
Q3 07 Q2 07 Q1 07 2006 2005 2004
TURKEY
 Real                           1.51 4.05 6.79 6.15 7.36 9.01
 Nominal 9.34 12.84 16.06 14.75 12.59 19.09
 Deflator   7.71 8.45 8.66 7.93 4.99 9.36
ESTONIA
 Real                           6.38 7.56 10.10 11.19 10.15 8.26
 Nominal 16.57 17.77 19.68 18.06 16.99 10.23
 Deflator   9.62 9.49 8.65 6.18 6.20 1.82
RUSSIA  
 Real                           7.65. 7.77 7.90 6.71 6.37 7.15
 Nominal 22.13 20.89 19.97 23.87 26.82 28.23
 Deflator   13.45 12.19 7.49 16.09 19.20 19.97
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