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Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs Are Sagging 
by Robert Brusca December 10, 2007

The MAIN OECD LEIs (leading economic Indicators, trend adjusted) are dropping at a faster pace over the recent three months. Japan’s drop is the sharpest. The OECD itself pushes emphasis on the 6-month changes in these indexes. On that basis the OECD, the OECD main seven OECD Europe, Japan and the US all are declining. The US move is the least negative. Japan’s is the most. Europe's slide is a bit less than for the OECD overall.

Still the message from these OECD LEIs is very clear. The area is slowing. The OECD itself flags Japan as a worrisome case and talks of moderate slowing elsewhere. Clearly financial markets and central bank events can have an influence on events in these various countries and regions. The outlook remains in flux since these indicators have worsened since last month.

OECD Leading Indicators by Main regions/countries
  Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo
OECD -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -5.1% -2.0% -0.1%
OECD Big 7 -0.5% -0.5% -0.8% -7.0% -2.9% -1.5%
OECD Europe 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% -3.1% -1.5% -0.8%
OECD Japan -1.4% -1.2% -1.6% -15.7% -11.5% -11.7%
OECD US -0.5% -0.4% -0.7% -6.0% -0.7% 1.6%
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