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Economy in Brief
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EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca December 6, 2007
German orders jumped in October rising by 4% after an upward
revised drop of 1.6% in Sept. The gain saw the domestic orders
component rise by 2.7% as foreign orders rose by 5%. Foreign orders are
now rising at a 33% pace over three months and clearly accelerating
while domestic orders post a slightly stronger three month growth rate
of 2.9%. Sales of consumer and intermediate goods remain weak while
capital goods sales surged in October.
Order detail shows that bulk orders account for the surge in
October. Bulk orders were behind the 8.1% surge in investment goods
orders that saw domestic investment goods orders rise by 6.4% and
foreign orders rise by 9.4%. Basic goods orders fell by 0.4% in October
and consumer goods order volumes fell by 0.8%. Orders from outside the
Euro Area increased by 4.2% while Ex-German Euro Area orders rose by a
sharp 6%.
For the quarter underway orders are not tremendously strong
with overall orders rising at an annual rate that exceeds 20%.
On balance German institutes are still cutting their forecasts
for 2008. The chart (above) shows that even with this new surge, orders
are in lower trajectory than they were in their hey-day. It is unclear
what this surge means for the outlook. It may be a fluke of orders
clumping since most other measures continue to show slowing. I do not
think it is a revival.
German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | |||||
Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
Total Orders | 4.0% | -1.6% | 1.9% | 17.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.1% |
Foreign | 5.0% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 33.6% | 15.6% | 15.5% | 6.7% |
Domestic | 2.7% | -2.4% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% |
Sector Sales | |||||||
MFG/Mining | 1.2% | -0.3% | 1.3% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
Consumer | 0.2% | -0.3% | 1.7% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% |
Consumer Durables | -1.7% | -4.0% | 4.2% | -6.8% | -3.4% | -0.9% | 7.8% |
Consumer Nondurables | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
Capital Goods | 3.4% | -0.2% | 1.1% | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.2% |
Intermediate Goods | -0.7% | -0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% |
All Manufacturing Sales | 1.2% | -0.2% | 1.3% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% |