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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 5, 2007
Factory inventories ticked up 0.1% during October following a 0.6% surge in September. The three month in manufacturers' inventories remained stable at 2.3% (AR) but that was much more moderate than in prior years.
Excluding the volatile transportation sector, inventories were unchanged also after a 0.6% September increase. Three month accumulation at a 2.1% also is down from 7.1% for all of last year. The slowdown continued in inventories of computers & electronic products to a three month growth rate of 4.4% versus 10.4% last year and inventories of industrial machinery rose 1.9% following a 22.8% jump last year. Electrical equipment inventories have been falling since mid-year after 25.2% growth in 2006.
Factory shipments surged 1.0% in October but weakness during prior months left three month growth at -2.3% (AR). Much of that weakness has been due to the automotive and aircraft industries. Excluding transportation altogether, October shipments rose 1.1% and the three month growth rate was somewhat reduced at 3.7% versus 5.0% growth last year.
Total factory orders continue to hold little promise for a pickup in factory sector activity. A 0.5% October gain followed a like rise in September but three month growth fell to -10.2% (AR). The 0.4% October decline in durable goods orders in the advance report was little revised.
Unfilled orders rose 1.0%, about the same as in prior months. Excluding, the transportation industries unfilled orders rose 0.8% and the three month growth rate was double digit with a 10.4% rise.
Factory Survey (NAICS) | October | September | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
New Orders | 0.5% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 11.6% | 6.9% |
Shipments | 1.0% | 0.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 10.3% | 6.9% |
Unfilled Orders | 1.0% | 1.1% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 15.0% | 3.9% |