Recent Updates

  • US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (Aug), Texas Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
  • Belgium: Business Surveys (Sep)
  • Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade by Province (Jul)
  • Canada: Wholesale Trade (Jul)
  • Mauritius: IP (Q2); Turkey: Business Tendency Survey (Sep), Capacity Utilization Rates (Sep)
  • UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep)
  • Slovenia: Confidence Indicators, Business Tendency
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

IFO Index Continues to Slip; Components Show Weakness
by Robert Brusca November 30, 2007

The IFO released its survey detail for its sector results previously announced for November. The IFO headlines are dropping steadily and consistently. Manufacturing, while showing some bounce in other recent surveys, is giving off strings of negative readings that reflect diminished growth from one year ago and fading prospects. In fact the IFO activity response is weaker Y/Yr for three months running. Demand is off for at least five months running. ‘Foreign orders on hand’ has been the slowest series to react but it is now down Yr/Yr for two months in a row.

The current situation is evaluated as steady for the last two months running. It remains in nearly the top 5% of the range for current situation historically. But business expectations continue to erode. They are still in the top one third of their range, but barely.

In the outlook for the next three months conditions are slipping. Retail orders expectations are erratically moving lower although this month interrupted a two month period of severe Yr/Yr drops. Wholesaling is however weakening rapidly and severely compared to its year ago levels. Export business expectations are consistently weaker than they were a year ago. Employment expectations continue to improve. Surely if the other trends are valid, that one can’t last.

IFO Survey: Germany
  Percent: Yr/Yr INDEX NUMBERS
  Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Current Average %tile
Biz Climate -2.5% -1.5% -0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 104.2 95.8 81.0%
Current Situation -3.1% -2.1% -1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 110.4 94.9 84.8%
Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos -2.0% -0.7% -0.4% -1.1% -0.9% 98.3 96.7 67.3%
                 
Manufacturing: Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Current Average %tile
Current Situation
MFG 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 111.1 92.5 94.8%
Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos
MFG -2.9% -2.4% -1.5% -1.9% -0.5% 97.3 96.5 67.1%
Activity (m/m)
MFG -3.2% -5.3% -4.5% 1.0% -1.8% 101.7 97.0 72.8%
Demand M/M
MFG -5.6% -8.4% -6.4% -2.8% -3.3% 99.2 97.1 61.9%
Orders on hand
MFG -4.7% -7.9% -4.6% -2.4% -2.7% 101.1 96.5 68.9%
Foreign orders on hand
MFG -1.9% -0.4% 0.5% 2.5% 2.0% 109.7 94.7 91.7%
Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices
IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead
3-Mos ahead Percent: Yr/Yr INDEX NUMBERS
Expected Activity Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Current Average %tile
MFG -2.3% -1.9% -1.0% 2.4% 1.0% 101.3 96.8 85.6%
Orders expectations Changes over 12-months
Retail Orders 4.0% -12.0% -8.0% 3.0% 4.0% -8.8 -17.7 76.8%
Wholesale -10.0% -12.0% -13.0% -5.0% -5.0% 5.5 -13.8 80.2%
EXPORT Biz Expectations
MFG -3.3% -3.8% -2.4% -0.1% -0.9% 103.1 98.5 87.7%
Employment Expectations
MFG (Since June 1997) 1.6% 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 6.2% 105.5 96.1 97.7%
close
large image