Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca November 30, 2007
Consumer confidence is taking a hit and an ongoing one in EMU.
The percentiles tell an interesting story of these unfolding
developments. It is no surprise (final column of the table) that the
strongest correlation with Consumer Confidence is expected
unemployment. Expected unemployment is rising but is only in its 15th
percentile. Expected savings is also a very weak percentile reading as
is ‘major purchases now’. The later figure is plotted in the chart
along with the consumer confidence main index. ‘Major purchases now’
responses seem to lead the overall index -- and this series is very
weak.
The strongest range readings are for price trends (past 12
months and future 12 months) and for the ‘economic situation past 12
months’. In other words the more topical the categories, the weaker the
responses.
Across countries Germany’s responses are still quite strong in
the top 17 percent of its range. The UK in the 68th percentile is next
followed by France in the 60th percentile. Italy and Spain are weak
with readings below the 50th percentile.
It should not be a surprise that (apart from the UK) all these countries are in the same currency union and are experiencing the same pains of a strong currency. Germany, a county used to a strong currency, finds its consumers faring best. Italy and Spain, two previously weak currency countries, are having a much more difficult time making the adjustment to the strong euro.
EMU Consumer Confidence and Country Performance | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMU | Nov 07 |
Oct 07 |
Sep 07 |
Aug 07 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | R-SQ w/ Confid |
Consumer Confidence | -8 | -6 | -6 | -4 | 67.7 | 67 | 2 | -29 | 31 | -12 | -- |
Fin Situation Next 12 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | 43.8 | 128 | 5 | -11 | 16 | -2 | 0.85 |
Econ Sit Next 12 | -11 | -6 | -7 | -2 | 61.5 | 90 | 4 | -35 | 39 | -12 | 0.91 |
Unemployment Expect | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 15.9 | 183 | 60 | -3 | 63 | 26 | 0.94 |
Savings Next 12m | -11 | -10 | -7 | -7 | 17.6 | 186 | 3 | -14 | 17 | -6 | 0.55 |
Fin Sit Past12m | -13 | -12 | -10 | -10 | 36.8 | 121 | -1 | -20 | 19 | -11 | 0.53 |
Econ Sit Past 12m | -17 | -14 | -13 | -9 | 69.6 | 54 | -3 | -49 | 46 | -24 | 0.87 |
Savings-Now | 30 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 33.3 | 79 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 35 | 0.03 |
Major Purchase-Now | -23 | -18 | -16 | -15 | 17.6 | 101 | 5 | -29 | 34 | -12 | 0.54 |
Major Purchase Next 12m | -18 | -16 | -17 | -17 | 33.3 | 92 | -12 | -21 | 9 | -16 | 0.43 |
Price trends past 12m | 55 | 50 | 45 | 41 | 88.1 | 9 | 63 | -4 | 67 | 31 | 0.10 |
Price Trends Next 12m | 28 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 76.5 | 14 | 36 | 2 | 34 | 17 | 0.02 |
By Country | |||||||||||
Germany | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 83.8 | 16 | 9 | -28 | 37 | -10 | 0.82 |
France | -11 | -7 | -5 | -3 | 60.5 | 50 | 4 | -34 | 38 | -17 | 0.78 |
Italy | -22 | -21 | -19 | -20 | 40.0 | 189 | 2 | -38 | 40 | -14 | 0.53 |
Spain | -17 | -16 | -14 | -12 | 46.5 | 174 | 6 | -37 | 43 | -11 | 0.64 |
UK | -4 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 68.6 | 75 | 7 | -28 | 35 | -7 | 0.21 |
Since 1990 | 208 | -Count |