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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Improved
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2007

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its November business barometer improved to 52.9 and the 3.2 point rise from October reversed most of that month's deterioration. The latest figure was better than expected. Nevertheless, during the last four months the readings remained near or well below the highs of earlier this year.

During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the index and the three-month change in US factory sector industrial production. There has been an 85% correlation between the Chicago figure and the national ISM index (due for release on Monday) and that is the highest correlation of all the regional series with the Nat'l index.

The production component of the Chicago measure gained back most of a sharp drop in October. New orders remained at the October level which was near the lowest since February. The employment index similarly rose but the gain followed three months of decline and the index was to nowhere near the high reached back in July.

The prices paid index rose sharply m/m to the highest level since July of 2006.

Chicago PMI  November   October Nov. '06 2006 2005 2004
Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index 52.9 49.7 51.2 56.8 60.4 62.8
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