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Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2007
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged much more than expectations to the highest level since early this year. The 23,000 rise last week to 352,000 followed a little revised 12,000 decline during the week prior. The early timing of this year's Thanksgiving holiday may have affected the latest figure.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 335,250 (3.3% y/y) and that was up 3.5% from the prior four weeks.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 17 were in Texas (+1,097), Kentucky (+797), Idaho (+341), Arkansas (+219), and Wisconsin (+209), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-6,493), California (-5,905), Puerto Rico (-3,882), New Jersey (-3,011), and Virginia (-1,542).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 112,000 from the prior week, the largest one week increase since early this year, and it followed modest decline in the prior three weeks.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% during the prior week.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/24/07 | 11/17/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 352 | 329 | 0.9% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,665 | 8.2% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |