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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Tom Moeller November 27, 2007
According to the Conference Board Survey consumer confidence dropped 8.3% in November to a reading of 87.3, the seventh m/m decline of 2007 and the largest since September 2005. The decline was to the lowest level in two years. A much lesser drop to 91.4 had been generally expected by economists.
The expectations index fell out of bed and posted a 14.1% m/m drop. It is off by a quarter during the last twelve months. Expectations for employment (more jobs) fell to a meager 10.8% looking for a rise, the least since the recession of 1990.Only 12.4% of respondents expected better business conditions, the least since 2000 while 18.7% expected an improvement in their income. That was down just slightly.
Plans to buy major appliances in the next six months improved slightly from a very depressed October level but the percentage intending to buy a home collapsed to just 2.5%, the least since 1994.
Just 2.0% of respondents planned to by a new automobile within the next six months, the least since 1974.
The present conditions index fell 2.2%, similar to the October m/m decline. The decline was to a level which was the lowest in about two years. Just 22.3% saw business conditions as good, the least since 2004, and 23.2% saw jobs as plentiful. A lesser 21.3% of respondents viewed jobs as hard to get.
The expected inflation rate in twelve months jumped to 5.7% from 5.1% in October, the highest expectation in two years.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index Composite 20, U.S. home prices fell 0.9% m/m in September. The decline pulled the y/y comparison to a negative 4.9% and since the beginning of this year house prices have fallen 3.8%.
Home prices in San Diego California were extremely weak with a 9.6% y/y decline as were prices in Miami Florida which fell 10.0% y/y. In Las Vegas home prices fell 9.0% y/y and in Los Angeles prices fell 7.0%.
More moderate, but still substantial, declines were registered in New York (-3.6% y/y), Chicago (-2.5% y/y) and Denver (-0.9%).
The index of just 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is not adjusted for the quality or the size of the home. It fell five percent in August from a year ago.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) |
November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 87.3 | 95.2 | -17.1% | 105.9 | 100.3 | 96.1 |
Present Conditions | 115.4 | 118.0 | -8.0% | 130.2 | 116.1 | 94.9 |
Expectations | 68.7 | 80.0 | -25.2% | 89.7 | 89.7 | 96.9 |