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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca November 26, 2007
UK GDP slipped in the current quarter to a growth rate of 3% from 3.3% in Q2. And while it is a touch below its year/year pace of late it is also a touch above its five year range. Private consumption was strong in Q3 at an annualized quarterly pace of 4.1%. Above last quarter’s pace and well above the five-year trend. Public spending at 1.2% was slow. Capital spending at 6.7% was a sharp rebound but the year/year pace is slowing. Exports and imports each were up sharply on the quarter. Their past trends are hard to compare due to special factors in the historic pattern. Domestic demand remains solid in the UK. At 4.7% the quarter was up sharply and the year/year erosion to a pace of 3.5% was mild and is still above the five-year average. On balance GDP trends seem to be holding up well. It is the path of inflation that remains most in doubt, especially with oil prices flaring. Housing is getting decidedly weaker but there is no evidence of any knock-on impact on GDP.
UK GDP | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumption | Capital Formation | Domestic | ||||||
GDP | Private | Public | Total | Housing | Exports | Imports | Demand | |
% change Q/Q | ||||||||
Q3-07 | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 6.7% | #N/A | 11.5% | 16.7% | 4.7% |
Q2-07 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | -3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.6% | 2.6% |
Q1-07 | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 10.5% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
Q4-06 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 13.7% | -9.7% | 0.9% | -1.8% | 2.4% |
% change Yr/Yr | ||||||||
Q3-07 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 5.1% | #N/A | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
Q2-07 | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | -12.4% | -9.9% | 3.6% |
Q1-07 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | -10.2% | -7.1% | 3.8% |
Q4-06 | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 10.3% | 6.4% | -2.4% | -0.6% | 3.6% |
5-Yrs | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | #N/A | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% |