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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative for Third Month
by Tom Moeller November 26, 2007

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago during October ran negative for the third consecutive month at -0.73. It was the eight month in the last tenthat the index ran negative and it landed the three month moving average at its lowest level (-0.56) since 2003.

The Chicago Fed indicated that three of the four broad categories of indicators—employment, production, and consumption and housing—made negative contributions to the index.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.

Chicago Fed October September Oct. '06 2006 2005 2004
CFNAI -0.73 -0.30 -0.43 0.03 0.28 0.32
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