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Economy in Brief

Italy's Orders Growth Slows as Foreign Orders Hold Erratically Higher
by Robert Brusca November 20, 2007

Italy’s order trends are not as clear as the slowing in some other Euro area countries. True, the 3-month growth rates are lower and sharply lower especially for foreign orders. But the chart on the left shows how erratic foreign orders have been. Domestic orders that have slowed by less are negative and in a clearer slowdown mode. On balance Italy’s pattern looks as though its showdown is of domestic, not of foreign, origin. Domestic orders have been weak and are now in negative territory. Sales, which have been relatively firmer and even accelerated in the recent three months, fell sharply in September after a strong rise in August. Orders give us a clearer picture of slowing growth in Italy. The foreign sector is unclear. But domestic orders are sending a pretty clear message of slowdown in progress.

Italy Orders
Saar exept m/m Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo
Total 0.3% -0.8% -0.6% -4.1% 6.3% 5.9%
Foreign 5.7% -4.0% -3.5% -8.1% 15.7% 17.8%
Domestic -2.7% 1.1% 1.1% -2.1% 1.3% 0.0%
Sales -3.6% 4.0% 1.3% 6.7% 3.8% 5.9%
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