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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2007
Total business inventories rose a moderate 0.4% during September
following the prior month's 0.3% gain. The three month change in
inventories remained stable with the prior few months, up from earlier
this year but half the growth rates seen last year. That slowing
remained a function of the slower growth in sales
Retail inventories ticked up just 0.1%. Inventories of motor
vehicles & parts dealers actually fell a slight 0.1% (+2.1% y/y)
after the 1.5% spurt during August. Excluding autos, retail inventories
rose a modest 0.2% following a little revised, negligible August
decline. Furniture inventories spurted 1.3% (3.3% y/y) and the three
month change rose to an excessive (9.9%, AR). At clothing &
accessory stores inventories rose 0.1% and offset a 0.1% August
downtick and it left the three month at a manageable 0.0%. Inventories
at General merchandise stores also seemed under control. a 0.4% gain
followed declines during the prior three months and three month growth
was a negative 2.8%.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% following a very much upwardly revised 0.7% August increase. Petroleum inventories fell for third straight month (-1.3% y/y) and less petroleum, wholesale inventories rose 0.9%, up 5.4% y/y which is a y/y growth rate which has halved versus late last year. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the annual change in wholesale inventories les petroleum and the change in merchandise imports.
Factory inventories rose 0.6% (2.2% y/y) after two months of little change. Three month growth in manufacturers' inventories was 2.3% versus a 6.4% rate of growth during all of last year.
The Role of Money in Monetary Policy: Why Do the Fed and ECB See It So Differently? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
Business Inventories | September | August | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
Retail | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 6.8% |
Retail excl. Autos | 0.2% | -0.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% |
Wholesale | 0.8% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% |
Manufacturing | 0.6% | -0.1% | 2.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% |