Recent Updates
- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
- Brazil: Retail Trade (Jul)
- North Macedonia: Central Bank Bills (Jul)
- Albania: Banking system liabilities (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca November 15, 2007
The EMU region shows accelerations in overall inflation as well as in core inflation (see table below). The goods sector (a sector that includes energy) shows inflation is steadily accelerating and services show the opposite, steady price deceleration. From the stand point of inflation this offset is good news. From the stand point of growth it may not be…
The weakness in services prices is suggestive of a domestic population besieged by rising goods prices (…some of them of inelastic demand such as food and energy) robbing spending from the services component of expenditures where relatively more of the discretionary funds may be spent. We will want to watch to see if the EMU service sectors reflect a growing weakness that would confirm that such an effect is in train.
The bottom of the table includes core inflation readings across main EMU countries and all of them show that their inflation acceleration is in train or above the ECB ceiling rate of 2%... or both.
With this report a more detailed look behind the ‘seemingly benign’ core rate of inflation of 2.1% looks a lot grimmer. With the euro rising, and the ECB warning of spreading price pressures, it puts the EMU region and the ECB in a tough spot.
Trends in HICP | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% mo/mo | % saar | ||||||
Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
EMU-13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Core | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
Goods | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
Services | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% | -1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
HICP | |||||||
Germany | 0.2% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
France | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
Italy | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
Spain | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
Core: xFE&A | |||||||
Germany | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
France | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
Italy | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Spain | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% |