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Economy in Brief

Japan’s Tertiary Sector Echoes Weakness in MFG and Mining
by Robert Brusca November 15, 2007

The percentile readings for Japan’s tertiary and manufacturing/mining indexes remain elevated in the top 10% of their respective ranges. In the case of the services industries their index seems to show them still on trend with a bump lower in October. In short, in September the drop does not seem to be anything to worry about, especially on the heels of a solid gain in August. The MFG series shows a slump that was probably aggravated by Japan’s earthquake. The acceleration out of that slump pushes the index up sharply and so the current setback comes at a time that the strength in the short term trend is probably overstated. Even so the pull back in September is a minor one. The moving averages show the Mining/MFG index still going higher while the service sector shows the trend for 3-Month and 6-Months has gone flat. That sector will be the one to watch.

Japan Industry Surveys
Recent Months Moving Averages Extremes; Range
Sep-2007 Aug-2007 Jul-2007 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Max Min %-Tile
Mining and MFG 110.3 111.9 108.1 110.1 108.9 108.5 111.9 87.7 93.4%
Tertiary 109.4 111.2 109.9 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.2 91.0 91.1%
Ranges, Max, Min since 1993
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