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Economy in Brief

German Sales Trends Improving; But Still a Moderate Quarter
by Robert Brusca November 13, 2007

Spending patterns improved in September from August despite their downward revision. Sequential rates of growth find 3-month and 6-month rates of growth are generally improved form their respective year ago pace. Nominal auto sales were especially strong in the quarter expanding at a growth rate of better than 20%. But excluding autos consumer spending is still very restrained. For the quarter real German retail sales excluding autos are up by just a rate of 0.7%. Nominal retail sales are up at a 1.6% pace in the quarter. Nominal food and tobacco sales are off by 0.9% in the quarter. Clothing and shoe sales are up by just 2.3%. The sequential growth rates show more pop than the quarterly growth rates do. Time will tell if the rebound is authentic or not.

German Real and Nominal Retail Sales New QTR
Nominal Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 3-MO 6-MO 12-MO YrAGo New Qtr Saar
Retail Ex auto 2.0% -1.1% 0.6% 6.3% 3.7% 1.9% 5.6% 1.6%
MV and Parts -2.4% 4.3% 0.8% 10.7% 12.8% -2.5% 15.2% 21.8%
Food Beverages & Tobacco 2.9% -0.8% -0.2% 7.7% 4.4% 1.7% 5.1% -0.9%
Clothing footwear 3.8% 0.3% 0.2% 18.3% 8.2% 14.5% 3.4% 2.3%
Retail Ex auto 1.6% -1.5% 0.8% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 5.1% 0.7%
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