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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Eased
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2007

Chain store sales last week eased 0.5% and reversed half of the gain earlier in November, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

For both weeks this month, sales were up a small 0.2% from the October average which fell 0.8% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) reversing a price of the prior week's rise.

The October 2007 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/10/07 11/03/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 475.2 477.8 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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