Recent Updates
- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
- Brazil: Retail Trade (Jul)
- North Macedonia: Central Bank Bills (Jul)
- Albania: Banking system liabilities (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2007
Small business optimism rose by 1.1% last month and reversed all of its September increase. Nevertheless, the level remained near the lows of this past Summer, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms indicating that credit was more difficult to get reversed all of the September increase, though it remained in an uptrend.
Respondents expecting the economy to improve fell and remained in
the low range of the last year. During the last ten years there has
been a 72% correlation between the NFIB percentage and the y/y change
in nonfarm payrolls.
The percent planning to raise capital expenditures fell to near the lows of this cycle and the percentage planning to raise employment fell sharply m/m to the lowest level since last December.
The percentage of firms indicating that inventories were too low fell to the current cycle's low..The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices remained low as did the percentage of firms actually raising prices, though the latter rose m/m. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | October | September | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 96.2 | 97.3 | -4.5% | 98.9 | 101.6 | 104.6 |