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Economy in Brief

OECD Shifts to Slowdown Signal
by Robert Brusca November 12, 2007

The OECD trend restored leading indicators are now indicating an outright slowing rather than a moderating for growth. These signals have been gradually shifting toward the more pessimistic. Japan’s signal is now quite dour. The US and Europe are showing almost the same degree of slowdown in the new numbers. The table is arrayed with some six month calculations since that is the OECD’s preferred way of assessing its data. No matter how you slice this month the outlook is for weakening.

OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators
Growth Progression-SAAR
  3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD -5.8% -1.0% 0.4% 2.6%
OECD7 -7.8% -1.8% -0.4% 1.8%
OECD Europe -4.5% -1.6% -0.3% 2.9%
OECD Japan -21.6% -12.1% -6.6% 1.9%
OECD US -5.3% 1.3% 1.4% 2.0%
Six-month Readings at 6-Month Intervals:
  Recent six 6Mo Ago 12Mo Ago 18MO Ago
OECD -1.0% 1.8% 0.5% 4.7%
OECD 7 -1.8% 1.0% -0.5% 4.2%
OECD Europe -1.6% 1.1% 1.8% 3.9%
OECD Japan -12.1% -0.7% -0.1% 4.0%
OECD US 1.3% 1.6% -0.9% 5.1%
Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED
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