Recent Updates
- US: Business Formation Statistics, Producer Prices (Jul)
- US: Producer Price Indexes Detail by Commodity Detail (Jul)
- Israel: Foreign Trade, Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
- Mexico: IP (Jun)
- South Africa: Mining Production (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca November 7, 2007
Most recent German reports have shown some weakening trends especially the new industrial orders. But in September IP itself was strong even as the outlook was weakening. The strength in output is mostly in capital goods where output is rising at a 12.5% pace in Q3, quite heated. Compare that to a 0.3% annual rate of increase for consumer goods in the quarter. For the moment intermediate goods output is strong, up at an 8.9% pace. The last three months show a real push in output that contrasts sharply with the weakness we have seen in new orders. This could be the turning point for German growth. Even the IFO report shows German MFG turning toward slower, not faster, growth. IP seems to be a lagging indicator in this process.
German Industrial Production | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saar except m/m | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-Date |
IP total | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
Consumer | -0.3% | 4.2% | -1.3% | 10.6% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
Capital | 0.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 12.5% |
Intermediate | 0.2% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% |
Memo | |||||||
Construction | 0.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 15.6% | -7.6% | -2.4% | 4.9% |