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Economy in Brief

German Mfg IP Turns its Trend Higher Unexpectedly
by Robert Brusca November 7, 2007

Most recent German reports have shown some weakening trends especially the new industrial orders. But in September IP itself was strong even as the outlook was weakening. The strength in output is mostly in capital goods where output is rising at a 12.5% pace in Q3, quite heated. Compare that to a 0.3% annual rate of increase for consumer goods in the quarter. For the moment intermediate goods output is strong, up at an 8.9% pace. The last three months show a real push in output that contrasts sharply with the weakness we have seen in new orders. This could be the turning point for German growth. Even the IFO report shows German MFG turning toward slower, not faster, growth. IP seems to be a lagging indicator in this process.

German Industrial Production
Saar except m/m Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 3-mo 6-mo 12-mo Quarter-to-Date
IP total 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 9.7% 5.5% 6.1% 8.5%
Consumer -0.3% 4.2% -1.3% 10.6% 0.6% 3.6% 0.3%
Capital 0.1% 1.6% 1.3% 12.5% 7.9% 8.3% 12.5%
Intermediate 0.2% 1.5% -0.1% 7.0% 5.1% 7.1% 8.9%
Memo
Construction 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% 15.6% -7.6% -2.4% 4.9%
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