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by Tom Moeller November 6, 2007
Chain store sales during the opening week of November jumped 1.0% from the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The gain followed a 0.1% up tick during the prior week.
As a result of rise, early November sales began the month 0.5% ahead of the October average which fell 0.8% from September.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.8% (0.5% y/y) after declines during the two prior weeks.
The October 2007 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/03/07 | 10/27/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 477.8 | 473.3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
