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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Recovered
by Tom Moeller November 6, 2007

Chain store sales during the opening week of November jumped 1.0% from the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The gain followed a 0.1% up tick during the prior week.

As a result of rise, early November sales began the month 0.5% ahead of the October average which fell 0.8% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.8% (0.5% y/y) after declines during the two prior weeks.

The October 2007 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/03/07 10/27/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 477.8 473.3 2.4% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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