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Economy in Brief

PMIs in MFG are All Losing Momentum… but Still Showing Growth
by By Robert Brusca November 2, 2007

Is the thrill gone?EMU indexes stand more or less mid range.

In October the MFG PMIs are losing momentum. The chart on the left shows the year-over-year percentage drops in the levels of the index for key EMU countries. Although the various nations are at different levels in terms of their respective MFG indexes they are all declining in a very sympathetic bunched fashion.

The big countries - Germany, France, Italy and Spain – all have indexes clustered just north of their 50 breakeven marks. Spain has slipped below 50, the breakeven point for expansion/contraction. In terms of their respective range of values we find France and Spain are lower in their range percentiles. France’s raw reading of 50.54 is in the bottom 38 percentile of its range even though that PMI reading is above 50. The MFG PMI in France has simply tended to be stronger than in other countries.

Some of the smaller countries (Ireland, Greece, Austria and the Netherlands) have PMI ratings that are much higher in their respective ranges with raw PMI scores as high as 56. Greece has a PMI reading that ranks in the top 79th percentile of its range. Right now, the small countries of Europe are the ones pressing the advance for MFG for EMU as a region.

The UK, an EU member but not an EMU member, has a raw PMI score of 52.93, higher than any large EMU county and a range reading of 68.8% showing that the UK is also strong in its range of values.

NTC MFG Indexes
  Oct-07 Sep-07 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Percentile
Euro-13 51.52 53.21 53.02 54.09 54.96 52.2%
Germany 51.67 54.87 54.17 55.44 56.67 55.2%
France 50.54 50.51 51.20 52.50 53.27 38.1%
Italy 51.34 52.39 52.45 53.28 53.74 56.1%
Spain 49.58 50.80 50.85 52.35 54.27 44.7%
Austria 52.77 55.37 54.21 54.00 55.24 60.8%
Greece 55.27 53.83 54.22 54.03 53.13 79.6%
Ireland 52.27 54.35 53.66 53.33 52.94 67.9%
Netherlands 56.15 56.36 56.23 56.98 56.72 78.6%
EU
UK 52.93 54.73 54.54 54.75 54.21 68.8%
percentile is over range since March 2000
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