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Economy in Brief

UK Manufacturing Survey Turns Lower
by Robert Brusca November 1, 2007

The CIPS/NTC index of MFG for the UK shows a rather rapid downturn is in play. But the index reading at 52.9 is still reasonably upbeat by the historic standards of this survey. While the index is down from a peak of about 56 in August that nearly matches past peaks of around 56 back in 2004, the current reading is still in the 58th percentile of its range - a firm reading and solid location. Still, the table shows that the index has been falling and is now down over 6 months and 12 months even though the fall is rather recent. The depth of the plunge is notable. The two-month 3.03 point drop is the largest change in the index since it rose by 3.03 points in January of this year. We have to go back to May of 2005 to find a larger two-month drop. So despite the reasonably cozy position of the index in its range we should be on the outlook for more weakness given the speed of this drop.

MFG PMI CIPS/NTC
  Monthly readings Change over: percentile
  Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 3MO 6MO 12MO of range
MFG 52.93 54.73 55.96 -2.61 -1.07 -1.12 58.4
Range since January 1992
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