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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca November 1, 2007
The CIPS/NTC index of MFG for the UK shows a rather rapid downturn is in play. But the index reading at 52.9 is still reasonably upbeat by the historic standards of this survey. While the index is down from a peak of about 56 in August that nearly matches past peaks of around 56 back in 2004, the current reading is still in the 58th percentile of its range - a firm reading and solid location. Still, the table shows that the index has been falling and is now down over 6 months and 12 months even though the fall is rather recent. The depth of the plunge is notable. The two-month 3.03 point drop is the largest change in the index since it rose by 3.03 points in January of this year. We have to go back to May of 2005 to find a larger two-month drop. So despite the reasonably cozy position of the index in its range we should be on the outlook for more weakness given the speed of this drop.
MFG PMI CIPS/NTC | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly readings | Change over: | percentile | |||||
Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3MO | 6MO | 12MO | of range | |
MFG | 52.93 | 54.73 | 55.96 | -2.61 | -1.07 | -1.12 | 58.4 |
Range since January 1992 |