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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Plunge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index retreated to 19.9 during June...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Improves Minimally
The FHFA U.S. house price index nudged 0.1% higher (6.4% y/y) during April...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Down Slightly
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 218,000 during the week ended June 16...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline While Prices Rise
The NAR U.S. existing home sales fell 0.4% (-3.0% y/y) during May to 5.430 million units (AR)...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens
The U.S. current account deficit rose to $124.1 billion during Q1 2018...
by Robert Brusca November 1, 2007
The UK distributive trades survey shows a slowing of the UK economy. Sales are at a +13 from a year ago and at +7 for this time of year (Chart). Each of those figures is about at the midpoint of their respective ranges. Orders at -1 stand in the bottom third of their range. This is a slowdown in progress. The outlook is however more upbeat. Sales are expected to post a +28 next month and that expectation is a top 16% of range expectation. The graph on the left shows the recent volatility in sales. For the moment it appears as though industry respondents are not taking the slowdown very seriously. The other outlook measures at the bottom of the table are strong to firm in their respective ranges as well.
| UK Distributive volume data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 12MO Avg | %tile | Max | Min | Range |
| Sales/Yr Ago | 13 | 40 | 30 | 4 | 21 | 49% | 49 | -21 | 70 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | -1 | 38 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 31% | 42 | -20 | 62 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 7 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 17 | 56% | 32 | -25 | 57 |
| Stocks: Sales | 5 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 22% | 30 | -2 | 32 |
| Expected: | |||||||||
| Sales/Yr Ago | 28 | 33 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 84% | 36 | -15 | 51 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | 26 | 23 | -4 | 16 | 16 | 89% | 32 | -24 | 56 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 12 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 61% | 29 | -15 | 44 |
| Stocks: Sales | 7 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 53% | 22 | -10 | 32 |
