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- G10: Economic Sentix Index, Switzerland: NCI Economic Activity Index (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Wholesale Inventories Grow While Sales Decline
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% month-on-month (6.9% year-over-year) during October...
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Expands
Consumer credit outstanding increased $25.38 billion during October...
German IP Takes Surprising October Slip
Germany's industrial production slowed to a gain of only 0.1% in September then dropped by 0.5% in October...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to 10-Year High; Record Goods Shortfall
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened for the fifth consecutive month to $55.49 billion in October...
U.S. ADP Private Sector Payroll Growth Eases
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 179,000 during November...
by Robert Brusca November 1, 2007
The UK distributive trades survey shows a slowing of the UK economy. Sales are at a +13 from a year ago and at +7 for this time of year (Chart). Each of those figures is about at the midpoint of their respective ranges. Orders at -1 stand in the bottom third of their range. This is a slowdown in progress. The outlook is however more upbeat. Sales are expected to post a +28 next month and that expectation is a top 16% of range expectation. The graph on the left shows the recent volatility in sales. For the moment it appears as though industry respondents are not taking the slowdown very seriously. The other outlook measures at the bottom of the table are strong to firm in their respective ranges as well.
| UK Distributive volume data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 12MO Avg | %tile | Max | Min | Range |
| Sales/Yr Ago | 13 | 40 | 30 | 4 | 21 | 49% | 49 | -21 | 70 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | -1 | 38 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 31% | 42 | -20 | 62 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 7 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 17 | 56% | 32 | -25 | 57 |
| Stocks: Sales | 5 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 22% | 30 | -2 | 32 |
| Expected: | |||||||||
| Sales/Yr Ago | 28 | 33 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 84% | 36 | -15 | 51 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | 26 | 23 | -4 | 16 | 16 | 89% | 32 | -24 | 56 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 12 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 61% | 29 | -15 | 44 |
| Stocks: Sales | 7 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 53% | 22 | -10 | 32 |
