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Special Topics
by Robert Brusca November 1, 2007
The UK distributive trades survey shows a slowing of the UK economy. Sales are at a +13 from a year ago and at +7 for this time of year (Chart). Each of those figures is about at the midpoint of their respective ranges. Orders at -1 stand in the bottom third of their range. This is a slowdown in progress. The outlook is however more upbeat. Sales are expected to post a +28 next month and that expectation is a top 16% of range expectation. The graph on the left shows the recent volatility in sales. For the moment it appears as though industry respondents are not taking the slowdown very seriously. The other outlook measures at the bottom of the table are strong to firm in their respective ranges as well.
| UK Distributive volume data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 12MO Avg | %tile | Max | Min | Range |
| Sales/Yr Ago | 13 | 40 | 30 | 4 | 21 | 49% | 49 | -21 | 70 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | -1 | 38 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 31% | 42 | -20 | 62 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 7 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 17 | 56% | 32 | -25 | 57 |
| Stocks: Sales | 5 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 22% | 30 | -2 | 32 |
| Expected: | |||||||||
| Sales/Yr Ago | 28 | 33 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 84% | 36 | -15 | 51 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | 26 | 23 | -4 | 16 | 16 | 89% | 32 | -24 | 56 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | 12 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 61% | 29 | -15 | 44 |
| Stocks: Sales | 7 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 53% | 22 | -10 | 32 |
