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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by By Robert Brusca October 31, 2007
UK consumer confidence fell in October after dropping sharply in September. The index now resides in the lower 15 percentile of its range - a very poor standing. But the index is not without its paradoxes. Consumers rate their financial situation as the best ever, at the top of its range of responses. But the environment for making major purchases is rated as the worst ever (going back to January 1996).
Over the last 12 months the household financial situation was rated at zero, which garners a percentile standing of 75% - top 25 percentile of its range. But the general economic condition is only rated in the bottom 30%.
Over the next 12 months the financial situation is put at +13 which is a top 15% of range standing. But again the general economic situation is rated much lower, in its 46th percentile below the neutral mark of 50%.
As to income levels the bottom income group and the top group each rate conditions in the bottom 20 percentile of range or worse.
Consumers in the UK are having some fickle moments. But for the most part their assessment of the economy and the period ahead is that the times that lie ahead will not be so good.
GFK Consumer Survey | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% of 2Yr | % of 10Yr | |||||
Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Range | Range | |
Consumer Confidence | -8 | -7 | -4 | -6 | 14.3% | 16.7% |
Current | ||||||
Household Fin Sit | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Major Purchases | -5 | -3 | 4 | -2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Last 12 Months | ||||||
Household Fin Sit | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 75.0% | 70.0% |
General Econ Sit | -30 | -29 | -25 | -25 | 29.4% | 29.2% |
CPI | 69 | 64 | 62 | 66 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Savings | 38 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 81.0% | 93.1% |
Next 12-months | ||||||
Household Fin Sit | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 85.7% | 85.7% |
General Econ Sit | -17 | -19 | -15 | -13 | 46.2% | 56.7% |
Unemployment | 29 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28.6% | 58.3% |
Major Purchases | -18 | -20 | -18 | -21 | 62.5% | 29.4% |
Savings | 19 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 63.6% | 85.2% |
By Income | ||||||
Lower | -14 | -13 | -11 | -8 | 20.0% | 12.5% |
Upper | -3 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 10.0% | 9.1% |