Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca October 31, 2007
EU readings still strong…but countries and sectors are slowing
The accompanying chart shows the diminished lift in the
aggregate EU sentiment index and the same result for the largest EMU
nations. Only France is still showing Yr/Yr gains in sentiment; the
rest have crossed the line to reveal Yr/Yr contraction. Not
surprisingly Italy, probably the least competitive of the large EMU
countries, is showing the sharpest contraction. Surprisingly France is
the most resilient, but the chart also tells why. France did not enjoy
the same degree of upswing that the others did. The EU and EMU members
plotted had Yr/Yr gains of 12% or more at some point. France’s peak
Yr/Yr gain came later and only amounted to 8%. In this way France seems
to be a laggard that is prospering off the growth of others. That
suggests that France’s decline will come later too. It does not promise
that France’s decline when it comes will be shallower.
The top panel in the table below shows the relative strength
of the individual sectors within EU. Construction is the relative
strongest in that it is at the highest relative point in its own range
at the 93.3 percentile. That is followed by the industrial and retail
sectors at about a percentile reading of 85, consumer confidence at
75.9 and services at 65.8.
In terms of the major EMU nations plus the UK, France as we
saw above is the relative strongest in EMU but, standing in the 88th
percentile of its range, the non-EMU UK is stronger still. The EMU
itself stands in the 73rd percentile of its range and the other major
EMU countries are below that with Germany in the 63rd percentile, Italy
in the 61st and Spain in the 50th. Over the last four months all of
these are showing slippage. Europe is slowing down. Is it the strong
euro or something else? With the spike in the inflation is the ECB
still going to hikes rates? All interesting questions to stay in touch
with, aren’t they?
EU Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU | Oct 07 |
Sep 07 |
Aug 07 |
Jul 07 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | R-SQ w/ overall |
Overall | 109.5 | 110.6 | 113.1 | 113.3 | 82.9 | 48 | 117 | 74 | 43 | 100 | 1.00 |
Industrial | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 85.3 | 27 | 7 | -27 | 34 | -7 | 0.89 |
Consumer Confidence | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | 75.9 | 42 | 2 | -27 | 29 | -10 | 0.82 |
Retail | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 85.2 | 14 | 6 | -21 | 27 | -6 | 0.47 |
Construction | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 93.3 | 14 | 3 | -42 | 45 | -18 | 0.44 |
Services | 19 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 65.8 | 61 | 32 | -6 | 38 | 17 | 0.80 |
% m/m | Based on Level |
Level | |||||||||
EMU | -0.9% | -2.8% | -0.9% | -0.6% | 73.7 | 70 | 117 | 74 | 44 | 100 | 0.94 |
Germany | -0.6% | -3.3% | -0.9% | -0.5% | 63.7 | 64 | 121 | 79 | 42 | 100 | 0.62 |
France | 0.1% | -1.5% | -1.2% | 0.6% | 81.4 | 26 | 119 | 72 | 47 | 100 | 0.80 |
Italy | -0.2% | -0.8% | -3.0% | -0.9% | 61.5 | 90 | 121 | 72 | 49 | 100 | 0.79 |
Spain | -2.7% | -3.4% | 1.1% | -0.9% | 50.4 | 178 | 118 | 67 | 50 | 100 | 0.66 |
Memo: UK | -2.0% | 1.1% | 4.5% | -5.7% | 88.3 | 15 | 119 | 69 | 50 | 101 | 0.39 |
since 1990 except services (Oct 1996)208 | -count | services: | 126 | -count | |||||||
Sentiment is an index, sector readings are net balance diffusion measures |