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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Much Improved
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2007

The ADP National Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, found that private nonfarm payrolls rose a much improved 106,000 during October versus a 61,000 rise during September.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for October will be published this Friday.

Last month, ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls for September indicated an upwardly revised 61,000 increase in jobs that was followed by a 73,000 increase in private nonfarm payrolls.

The sub-index for small payrolls, rose 63,000.

The sub-index for large payrolls, conversely, fell 7,000.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

LAXEPA@USECON October September Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) 106,000 61,000 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3%
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