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Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 30, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales held steady last week (2.5% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during the week prior.
The average level of store sales in October is down 0.8% from the September average. That follows a 0.8% decline in the average level of chain store sales during September versus the August average.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline during the prior week.
The decline in chain store sales accompanied a another nickel rise in average gasoline prices across the country to $2.87 (27.9% y/y) per gallon.
Higher gasoline prices followed the 4.7% m/m increase in crude oil prices so far in October to $83.47 per barrel. That rise since has backed off slightly from the daily high this month of $89.48 per barrel but only to $87.57.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/27/07 | 10/20/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 473.3 | 472.9 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |