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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
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Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
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Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley October 30, 2007
Both Germany and Japan released labor force data for September today. Labor market conditions were weaker than expected in Japan and slightly stronger in Germany. The data are likely to restrain policy moves by both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. In the case of Japan, the data suggest that the Bank may, once again, be thwarted in its desire to raise rates. In the case of Germany, the data are a reason for the European Central Bank to resist pressure to lower rates.
The Japanese unemployment rate rose to 4.0% from 3.8% in September while the German unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%. Expectations had been for a decline in the Japanese rate and no change in the German rate. The unemployment rates for the two countries are shown in the first chart.
Even though the Japanese data are seasonally adjusted, they still exhibit a fair degree of volatility. To show a less busy picture we have used quarterly averages in the second and third charts showing the year to year percentage changes in total employment and unemployment in the two countries. The decline of 3% in Japanese employment in September from August led not only to an increase in the unemployed but also a 0.2% decline in the labor force. In Germany there was no change in the labor force and the increase in employment led to an equivalent decline in unemployment.
LABOR MARKET DATA | Sep 07 | Aug 07 | Sep 06 | M/M % chg | Y/Y % chg | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GERMANY | ||||||||
Employment (millions) | 39.8 | 39.7 | 39.1 | 0.09 | 1.71 | 39.0 | 38.7 | 38.8 |
Unemployment (millions) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.1 | -1.40 | -14.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
Labor Force (millions) | 43.3 | 43.3 | 43.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 43.0 |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | -0.2* | -1.5* | 9.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 |
JAPAN | ||||||||
Employment (millions) | 63.7 | 64.0 | 63.8 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 63.8 | 63.6 | 63.2 |
Unemployment (millions) | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Labor Force (millions) | 66.4 | 66.5 | 66.6 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 66.6 | 66.5 | 66.3 |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 0.2* | -0.2* | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
*Difference |