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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2007
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained high at 331,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level of 339,000 during the prior week.
The decline in claims last week fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline of 17,000 claims. The four week moving average of initial claims rose sharply to 324,750 (+5.0% y/y).
This month initial claims have averaged 326,000 per week, up 4.2% against an average of 313,000 during September.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose by 0.3% for second consecutive week. The increase during the prior week was downwardly revised.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.9%, off the peaks in August of 2.0% which were reached for only two weeks during month-end.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/20/07 | 10/13/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 331 | 339 | 6.8% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,530 | 3.9% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |