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- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
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- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller October 17, 2007
The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose 0.3% last month and that was the quickest since May. At 2.8%, the y/y rise also picked up and was the fastest since March. The September increase was slightly ahead of expectations for a 0.2% gain.
Food & beverage prices continued with a pattern of steadily increasing rates of change with a 0.5% (4.4% y/y) rise. That y/y increase is double the rate of last December. Prices for meats, poultry & fish firmed by 0.5% (5.5% y/y) and prices of dairy product prices jumped another 1.0% with the y/y gain a whopping 13.2%.
Energy prices were somewhat tame last month, rising just 0.3%, but gasoline prices (+8.7% y/y y/y) rose slightly for the first month in the last four. Fuel oil prices jumped 1.0% (6.5% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices rose 0.1% (1.4% y/y) after five consecutive months of decline.
Core consumer price inflation held stable at 0.2% for the fifth month in the last six and the y/y increase held stable with August at 2.1%.
Core goods prices fell just slightly as they did in August. Apparel prices again reversed direction and rose 0.3% (-1.7% y/y) after a 0.5% August decline and a 0.4% July increase. New & Used motor vehicle prices were under pressure and fell 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) while prices of household furnishings & operation fell for the third straight month by 0.2% (-0.7% y/y).Tobacco prices again provided much of the lift to goods price inflation with an accelerated 0.8% (7.5% y/y) rise.
Core services prices rose slightly faster than in August by 0.3% (3.3% y/y) following four consecutive months at 0.3%. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (3.5% y/y) reflecting a 0.3% (2.9% y/y) rise in owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not at all equivalent to straight house price measures. Inflation of public transportation prices has picked up recently and showed a second straight 0.5% (0.5% y/y) increase while medical care services prices rose a somewhat diminished 0.4% (5.6% y/y). Education service prices rose just 0.2% (5.3% y/y) but communication prices were unchanged (-0.6% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y) the core measure also rose 0.3%, 1.7% y/y.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve Board Discount Rate Meetings, August 16 through September 18, 2007 are available here.| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.0% | -0.0% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Energy | 0.3% | -3.2% | -1.0% | 5.4% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 10.8% |
| Food & Beverages | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
