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Economy in Brief

Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Recovered Smartly
by Tom Moeller October 16, 2007

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales last week recovered by 1.0% after roughly no change during the prior two periods.

Despite the latest increase, the average level of store sales in October is down 0.3% from the September average. That follows a 0.8% decline in the average level of chain store sales during September versus the August average.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.9% decline during the prior week.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/13/07 10/06/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 480.0 475.3 2.5% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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