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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca October 15, 2007
Italy’s inflation has fallen for the overall measure. But the chart also shows that the CORE inflation has been on a gradually elevating trend. Both the core and headline rate accelerated slightly in terms of their Yr/Yr rates in September. Still, the core and the overall rates are nicely below the ECB’s overall 2% inflation ceiling.
In September, Italy’s inflation report was turbulent. It was bifurcated, with six categories showing inflation on the month (m/m %) of 0.3% or greater. But there were also five main categories with the monthly price level actually falling by 0.2% or more. Food, alcohol and education prices were up the most in the month. The weakest prices were at restaurants and hotels, for recreation and culture and for communications. With this sort of turbulence in the market, it is a difficult time to get a read on true inflation trends in Italy. Diffusion readings show that over 3 months and 6 months inflation is accelerating in more categories that it is decelerating. Year-over-year, Italy’s trends are neutral.
| Italy HICP and CPI details | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| HICP Total | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.2% | 0.0% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.0% |
| CPI | |||||||
| All | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| CPI excl Tobacco | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| Food | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Alcohol | 0.6% | 0.6% | -0.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.1% |
| Clothing & Shoes | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Rent & Utilities | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 5.7% |
| Housing & Furniture | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Health Care | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.8% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| Transport | -0.2% | -0.7% | 0.6% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Communication | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -8.8% | -3.4% |
| Recreation & Culture | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| Education | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Restaurant & Hotel | -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Other | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| Diffusion | 58.3% | 66.7% | 50.0% | ||||
| Type: | Diffusion: Compared to | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | -- | ||
