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Economy in Brief

BOF Survey Moves Lower and is Barely Higher Yr/Yr
by Robert Brusca October 15, 2007

The Bank of France overall index is in the bottom 40 percent of its range with its drop off in September and is barely higher Yr/Yr. Production is in the bottom 20% of its range but the production OUTLOOK is in the top 20 percent of its range. Demand in terms of the order books is firm at just about the top 30 percent of its range but foreign order books are in the bottom 20 percent of their range. New orders are in the bottom 20 percent of their range, with agriculture, an important sector in France, in the bottom 10 percent of its range.

Hiring is only in the 28th percentile of its range but the outlook is - very surprisingly - a strong reading in the 98th percentile of its range. That is the strongest outlook reading in the survey and that is surprising especially with other outlook readings not nearly as strong.

Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey
    12 MO Since Jan-87 Percentile
  Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 AVERAGE Average rank/range
Production-latest mo
Total Industry 0.95 9.34 12.73 9 9 19.9%
Semi-Finished -7.53 3.32 14.17 7 7 6.0%
Capital 5.91 10.88 12.84 13 10 19.3%
Auto 22.37 27.31 2.24 4 8 75.9%
Consumer 5.7 15.07 19.43 10 12 28.5%
Agriculture & Food 2.12 4.11 8.1 10 10 16.7%
Production Outlook
Total Industry 12.68 7.9 2.21 9 10 82.0%
Semi-Finished 19.93 -2.45 -5.6 9 9 98.0%
Capital 19.32 12.6 7.2 15 12 81.9%
Auto 25.47 -11.9 -39.5 -5 4 90.3%
Consumer 6.19 5.32 -0.29 9 14 21.9%
Agriculture & Food 16.21 11.82 9.9 15 14 81.6%
Demand
Overall order books 24.76 26.14 28.52 26 4 69.6%
Foreign Orders 5.04 12.01 12.98 12 9 19.2%
New Orders
Total Industry 1.9 12.46 17.01 12 10 17.1%
Semi-Finished -4.76 7.21 16.18 9 8 15.1%
Capital 8.29 8.63 12.97 14 9 15.5%
Auto
Consumer 4.72 12.92 19.12 12 13 18.5%
Agriculture & Food 2.84 13.92 15 14 12 9.9%
Stocks: Finished Gds
Total Industry 0.43 0 -0.43 -2 -2 90.0%
Semi-Finished 1.46 -1.91 -2.29 -3 -2 82.9%
Capital 0.82 -3.81 -4.44 0 -3 64.2%
Auto -16.03 -10.12 -4.21 -5 -3 24.4%
Consumer 0.11 4.44 2.76 -1 0 49.5%
Agriculture & Food -0.19 5.07 4.32 1 0 50.5%
Capacity Utilization 85.19 83.07 85.25 85 85 72.0%
Hiring
Latest Month -1.59 -0.29 0.01 0 -1 28.6%
Outlook 0.35 -2.22 -4.79 -4 -5 98.0%
Industry Sentiment Index 104.78 106.63 108.49 107 106 38.7%
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