Recent Updates
- Slovenia: PPI (Jul)
- Peru: Balance of Payments (Q2) 08?19 EMERGEPR Taiwan: Industrial Production (Jun), New Motor Vehicle Registration (Jul), BOP, External Debt (Q2)
- Poland: IP Weights (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2007
Weakening growth in U.S. sales has necessitated a dramatic slowing of growth in business inventories during the last year.
Annual growth in business sales has more than halved to 3% as of August. That decline has been led by weaker growth in manufacturers' sales to 2.4% from 8.5% one year ago and slower growth in merchant wholesale sales to 6.8% y/y from 12.3%.
Retailer's sales have held up relatively well at 5.0% over the last year versus 6.2% during all of 2006, though that year's strength was concentrated early in the year and then fell off.
Total business inventories rose 0.1% in August. Y/Y growth, a measure of the trend, dropped down to 3.0%, half that for all of 2006.
Retail inventories grew 0.5% (2.6% y/y) in August. The inventories of motor vehicles & parts dealers were relatively firm at 1.5% (1.3% y/y) in August but that is down from 12.8% y/y growth twelve months ago. Excluding autos, retail inventories were unchanged in August and twelve month growth of 3.3% was about even with 2006, but both were down from 7.9% at the beginning of 2005. Furniture inventories fell slightly in August and twelve month growth of 1.5% has dropped from 4.2% last August and 11.1% at the beginning of 2005. At clothing & accessory stores, August inventories were about unchanged m/m and twelve month growth of 5.8% compares to 13.2% at the beginning of the year.
Wholesale inventories increased 0.1% and y/y growth of 4.4% is half that of last year. Petroleum inventories were about unchanged versus last year versus 60% growth at the beginning of 2006. Still, less petroleum wholesale inventories are up 4.5% which is about half the twelve month growth for all of last year.
Factory inventories actually fell slightly in August as part of a weakening trend since last year which has brought twelve month growth down to 2.4% from 8.5% at the middle of last year.
Business Inventories | August | July | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
Retail | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 6.8% |
Retail excl. Autos | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% |
Wholesale | 0.1% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% |
Manufacturing | -0.1% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% |