Recent Updates

  • US: Composite Indexes (Sep)
  • Canada Regional: Employment Insurance by Province (Aug)
  • Canada: Employment Insurance (Aug)
  • US: Philadelphia FRB Mfg Business Outlook Survey (Oct)
  • South Africa: Wholesale & Motor Trade Sales, Mining Production and Sales, Building Plans Passed & Buildings Completed (Aug); Angola: CPI (Sep); Egypt: Suez Canal (Sep-Prelim); Morocco: Public Finance (Sep); Turkey: IIP (Aug); Algeria: PPI, IP (Q2)
  • Portugal: Trade in Services (Aug)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Euro Area PPI Behaves in August
by Robert Brusca October 12, 2007

The year/year ex-construction PPI continues to head lower, while the six-month measure has seen some steady pressure and recent quasi-plateauing. But the three- month PPI is heading strongly lower. On balance, the Euro Area PPI seems to be well-behaved.

The trends are well-behaved across components as well. Only consumer goods prices at the producer level are showing any acceleration in the recent three months among major categories. Capital good prices are decelerating as are intermediate and energy goods. Manufacturing as a whole shows prices decelerating and the PPI ex-energy is also decelerating. The EMU PPI is well contained.

At the country level, Germany and Italy show the same sort of compliant patterns in their respective PPIs. The EU’s UK demonstrates some flare up in the overall PPI but still shows a PPI ex energy with decelerating trends. These are encouraging trends but this is not the ECB’s prime inflation measure. That one, the HICP, has been showing some pressure lately. But the lack of pressure at the PPI level is still good news – at least through August.

Euro Area and UK PPI Trends
  M/M Saar
Euro Area13 Aug-07 Jul-07 3-Mo 6-MO Yr/Yr Y/Y Yr Ago
Total ex Construction 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.2% 1.7% 5.7%
Excl Energy 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 3.2% 2.9% 3.6%
Capital Goods 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6%
Consumer Goods 0.5% 0.4% 4.4% 3.3% 2.3% 1.9%
Intermediate & Capital Goods 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 3.0% 3.3% 4.6%
Energy -0.7% 0.4% -1.2% 3.3% -2.2% 12.6%
MFG 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 4.8% 2.2% 4.0%
Germany 0.1% -0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 5.9%
ex Energy 0.3% 0.1% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 3.0%
Italy 0.1% 0.3% 2.0% 3.7% 1.9% 6.6%
ex Energy 0.3% 0.2% 2.1% 3.2% 3.1% 4.1%
UK -0.6% 0.7% 2.6% -2.3% -0.1% 8.4%
UK ex Energy 0.2% 0.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
Euro Area 13 Harmonized PPI excluding Construction
The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.
close
large image