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Economy in Brief

Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Roughly Unchanged: Again
by Tom Moeller October 9, 2007

For the second straight week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales showed roughly no change from the prior period. That followed declines of roughly 1.0% during each of the prior two consecutive weeks.

The average level of chain store sales during September fell 0.8% versus the August average. That average had risen 0.1% from July. Retail sales for September will be published by the Commerce Department this coming Friday.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.2% decline during the prior week.

Changing Productivity Trends from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/06/07 09/29/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 475.3 475.5 2.1% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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