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Economy in Brief

French Household Confidence Takes Sharp Reversal
by Robert Brusca October 5, 2007

Household confidence in France fails to climb to or above -10.

The chart on French consumer confidence shows that there is something around the level of -10 on the index that seems critical to the development of the direction on the index. In 1994-95 the index was about to move above +10 and eventually dipped to -30 before soaring above -10 to reach a peak of +10 in late 2000. From that peak confidence fell but once it broke below 10 in 2002 its fall accelerated. Now as confidence has tried to recover again it has once again failed to reach -10 or to climb above it. With that failure, confidence has fallen back sharply. Various line items on confidence are weak with the exception of plans to save with that indicator in the top 12 percent of its lifetime range.

INSEE Household Monthly Survey
          Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
  Sep
07
Aug
07
Jul
07
Jun
07
Percentile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Household Confidence -21 -17 -15 -13 27.9 109 10 -33 43 -17
Living Standards
past 12 Mos -50 -47 -46 -45 19.0 139 18 -66 84 -37
Next 12-Mos -26 -17 -11 -3 28.1 115 15 -42 57 -18
Unemployment: Next 12 13 0 -8 -8 45.5 152 73 -37 110 30
Price Developments
Past 12Mo 9 5 1 -8 75.9 27 30 -57 87 -20
Next 12-Mos -15 -20 -26 -28 49.5 16 31 -60 91 -34
Savings
Favorable to save 36 35 33 34 88.9 8 40 4 36 23
Ability to save Next 12 -6 -5 -4 -4 58.6 67 6 -23 29 -8
Spending
Favorable for major purchase -8 -6 -3 -7 58.6 51 16 -42 58 -12
Financial Situation
Current 16 15 15 14 61.9 39 24 3 21 12
Past 12 MOs -15 -14 -14 -11 54.5 68 -5 -27 22 -16
Next 12-Mos -4 -3 -1 4 44.4 159 11 -16 27 0
Number of observations in the period 208
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