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Economy in Brief

ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Smallest Since 2003
by Tom Moeller October 3, 2007

The ADP National Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, found that private nonfarm payrolls rose a somewhat improved 58,000 during September versus just a 27,000 rise during August.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for September will be published this Friday.

Last month, ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls for August indicated a revised 27,000 increase in jobs that was followed by a small 24,000 increase in private nonfarm payrolls.

The sub-index for large payrolls improved to a lesser rate of decline. Nevertheless, the index fell to its lowest level on record.

The sub-index for small payrolls, conversely, rose an improved 53,000.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

LAXEPA@USECON September August Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) 58,000 27,000 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3%
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