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Economy in Brief
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The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
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The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
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The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Robert Brusca September 28, 2007
The German IFO Index shows a broad weakening in its various sector indexes. Like the EU index, the decline though broad is also slow.
The business expectations index is now only in the top one-third of its range the current situation and overall climate indexes sport readings in the low 80 percentile of their respective ranges.
For MFG the reading overall is a still strong 92 percentile for the current situation but the forward-looking readings are much deteriorated from that. Business expectations are only in the top third of the range. as is month-to-month demand and orders on hand. Foreign orders on hand remain much stronger residing in the 96th percentile of their range.
The 3-month outlook sector is relatively firm with expected MFG activity in the 80th percentile. But orders expectations have been steadily slipping and are now just above the range midpoint at 57% for retail orders. Wholesale orders expectations are firm, in the top third of their range. Export expectations are still in the low 80th percentiles – but all of these readings are slipping. Employment expectations have slipped to the bottom third of their range.
| IFO Survey: Germany | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent:Yr/Yr | Index Numbers | ||||||||
| sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr /Avg |
%tile | |
| Biz Climate | -0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 104.2 | 95.7 | 108.9% | 81.0% |
| Current Situation | -1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 109.9 | 94.8 | 115.9% | 83.2% |
| Biz Expectations: Next6-Mos | -0.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.0% | 98.7 | 96.7 | 102.1% | 69.1% |
| Manufacturing: | sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr /Avg |
%tile |
| Current Situation | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 110.3 | 92.3 | 119.5% | 92.8% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.4% | -1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 0.9% | 97.0 | 96.5 | 100.6% | 66.1% |
| Activity (m/m) | |||||||||
| MFG | -4.5% | 1.0% | -1.9% | -3.7% | 2.0% | 102.9 | 97.0 | 106.1% | 77.8% |
| Demand M/M | |||||||||
| MFG | -6.3%> | -2.8% | -3.3% | -7.1% | 0.5% | 100.3 | 97.1 | 103.3% | 65.6% |
| Orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | -4.7% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% | -0.9% | 101.2 | 96.4 | 104.9% | 69.0% |
| Foreign orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 111.3 | 94.5 | 117.8% | 96.0% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indexes | |||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | |||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | Index Numbers | |||||||
| Expected Activity | sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr/ Avg |
%tile |
| MFG | -0.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 100.3 | 96.8 | 103.7% | 80.6% |
| Orders expectations | |||||||||
| Retail Orders Expectations | -1.8% | -10.5% | -11.7% | -10.9% | -4.7% | -18.0 | -17.6 | 102.2% | 57.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 15.7% | -1.1 | -13.9 | 7.9% | 67.1% |
| EXPORT Biz Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | 102.3 | 98.4 | 103.9% | 83.0% |
| Employment Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 104.5 | 96.0 | 108.8% | 33.3% |
