Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan IP forecasts have rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100. We are currently working on processing the new data.**
- ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. **
- Australia: PPI, Manufacturing Price, Construction Materials Prices (Mar); New Zealand: Trade by Country by Commodity, International Trade (Mar); ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
German Confidence Flattens and Falters
German confidence for May is mooted at a 97.8% queue percentile standing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
by Robert Brusca September 28, 2007
The German IFO Index shows a broad weakening in its various sector indexes. Like the EU index, the decline though broad is also slow.
The business expectations index is now only in the top one-third of its range the current situation and overall climate indexes sport readings in the low 80 percentile of their respective ranges.
For MFG the reading overall is a still strong 92 percentile for the current situation but the forward-looking readings are much deteriorated from that. Business expectations are only in the top third of the range. as is month-to-month demand and orders on hand. Foreign orders on hand remain much stronger residing in the 96th percentile of their range.
The 3-month outlook sector is relatively firm with expected MFG activity in the 80th percentile. But orders expectations have been steadily slipping and are now just above the range midpoint at 57% for retail orders. Wholesale orders expectations are firm, in the top third of their range. Export expectations are still in the low 80th percentiles – but all of these readings are slipping. Employment expectations have slipped to the bottom third of their range.
| IFO Survey: Germany | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent:Yr/Yr | Index Numbers | ||||||||
| sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr /Avg |
%tile | |
| Biz Climate | -0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 104.2 | 95.7 | 108.9% | 81.0% |
| Current Situation | -1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 109.9 | 94.8 | 115.9% | 83.2% |
| Biz Expectations: Next6-Mos | -0.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.0% | 98.7 | 96.7 | 102.1% | 69.1% |
| Manufacturing: | sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr /Avg |
%tile |
| Current Situation | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 110.3 | 92.3 | 119.5% | 92.8% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.4% | -1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 0.9% | 97.0 | 96.5 | 100.6% | 66.1% |
| Activity (m/m) | |||||||||
| MFG | -4.5% | 1.0% | -1.9% | -3.7% | 2.0% | 102.9 | 97.0 | 106.1% | 77.8% |
| Demand M/M | |||||||||
| MFG | -6.3%> | -2.8% | -3.3% | -7.1% | 0.5% | 100.3 | 97.1 | 103.3% | 65.6% |
| Orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | -4.7% | -2.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% | -0.9% | 101.2 | 96.4 | 104.9% | 69.0% |
| Foreign orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 111.3 | 94.5 | 117.8% | 96.0% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indexes | |||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | |||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | Index Numbers | |||||||
| Expected Activity | sep 07 |
aug 07 |
jul 07 |
jun 07 |
may 07 |
current | average | curr/ Avg |
%tile |
| MFG | -0.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 100.3 | 96.8 | 103.7% | 80.6% |
| Orders expectations | |||||||||
| Retail Orders Expectations | -1.8% | -10.5% | -11.7% | -10.9% | -4.7% | -18.0 | -17.6 | 102.2% | 57.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 15.7% | -1.1 | -13.9 | 7.9% | 67.1% |
| EXPORT Biz Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | 102.3 | 98.4 | 103.9% | 83.0% |
| Employment Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 104.5 | 96.0 | 108.8% | 33.3% |
