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Economy in Brief

In the UK, CBI Orders are Fading Over All Major Horizons
by Robert Brusca September 20, 2007

The CBI survey presents its data in net balance form like the Philadelphia Fed survey and NFIB survey. Values above unity denote increases, below unity they show declines. The ratings are about the breadth of the trend rather that the strength, although strength is usually inferred from breadth. The reading this month shows that orders are still rising but that the breadth of the reading is diminishing. More broadly the chart on the left shows that the trend toward narrowing gains is in place over long and short horizons. Export orders are on the decline; we have previously seen weakening in German orders for July and in other EMU countries. Output for the moment is holding up and is not reflecting any of the weakness in order trends. Prices are still showing upward pressure with a net positive reading of 16 in the current month but that is barely changed since the 12-month average is +17. Still UK inflation data have been good and the prospects for inflation are considered excellent.

UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey
Reported: Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 12Mo Avg Pcntle Max Min Range
Total Orders 6 9 -6 8 0 94% 9 -40 49
Export Orders -2 -3 -8 0 -4 91% 3 -50 53
Stocks: Final Goods 7 9 6 -2 9 32% 26 -2 28
Output Volume: Next 3M 17 13 10 25 16 80% 28 -28 56
Avg Prices 4 Next 3M 16 16 11 16 17 84% 25 -30 55
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