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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 20, 2007
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 9,000 to 311,000 and reversed all of the little revised 5,000 rise during the prior week. An unchanged reading of 322,000 had been expected by a Consensus of economists.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 320,750 (1.3% y/y).
The latest figure covers the survey week for nonfarm payrolls in September and claims fell 14,000 (4.3%) from the August period.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 53,000 and reversed all of the increases during the prior several weeks. The decline during the prior seek was revised to a slight increase. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Since yearend 2006, continuing claims have risen 132,000 or by 5.5%. During that period, the monthly survey of household employment from BLS indicates that individuals who were unemployed for 15-26 weeks rose 14.8%. The average weeks of unemployment rose to 16.9 from 15.9.
Reconciling the rise in these figures and the rough stability of the initial claims numbers may be that one represents the "flow" of unemployment while the other captures the "stock" of unemployed individuals. The payroll employment figures from BLS also represent the flow.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 1.9%.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/15/07 | 09/08/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 311 | 320 | -3.4% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,544 | 4.0% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |