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Economy in Brief

Italy’s Orders Show Volatility as Domestic Orders Slow
by Robert Brusca September 19, 2007

Euro-zone orders have begun to get choppy with weakness seen in foreign German orders in July and now a M/M drop in Italy’s foreign orders. AND while some of the MFG surveys are off peak, most industrial readings still stand at good solid levels. This month, despite some volatility the same is true for Italy.

Still, Italy’s foreign orders are strong, since orders had risen by more in June. The annualized three-month growth rate is 52.7%. Domestic orders that were up by a strong-seeming 1.3% in July are the ones that are slowing over three months with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%. That is still not a weak figure. Overall sales are up at a 14% pace in the three months ending in July.

In the third quarter, these figures imply growth of 26.9% in foreign orders and of 6.2% in domestic orders. Sales in Q3 are up at a 7.7% pace. So far this is a good start. But orders can be volatile. There have been other signs in the Euro area that have pointed to slowing, including MFG survey and orders and industrial production reports of other EU nations. Italy’s industrial figures at this point, while showing volatility, are not showing weakness.

Italy Orders
SAAR ex M/M Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 3-mo SAAR 6-mo SAAR 12-mo
Total -0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 20.3% 19.5% 7.9%
  Foreign -3.4% 9.2% 5.4% 52.7% 34.3% 19.6%
  Domestic 1.3% -1.0% 1.0.% 5.4% 11.8% 2.2%
Memo:
Sales 1.2% -1.9% 4.1% 14.0% 8.0% 8.3%
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