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Economy in Brief

Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Sharply
by Tom Moeller September 18, 2007

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks.

The decline reduced the average level of chain store sales in the first two weeks of August to a slight decline versus the July average. It before was a slight increase for the first week alone.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.4% and is up a small 0.5% y/y.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/15/07 09/08/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 480.3 485.6 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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