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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
Consumer credit outstanding jumped $40.1 billion (7.7% y/y) in June...
Japan's LEI Waffles and Slows
Japan's leading economic index in June slipped to 100.6...
U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) fell to $79.61 billion in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Remain on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 30 rose 6,000 to 260,000...
RICS Survey Shows Weakening U.K. Housing Market
With the Bank of England hiking its key rate by 50 basis points and planning to squeeze its balance sheet...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Excess Demand for Goods Caused Supply Constraints
Q2 GDP Does Not Confirm Economic Recession, But It Does Confirm A Corporate Profit Recession
State Coincident Indexes in June 2022
State Labor Markets in June 2022
No Recession Call Can Be Made Before BEA Explains The Record Gap Between Income & Output
by Robert Brusca September 17, 2007
With the euro rising, it is not surprising to see the EMU areas trade surplus erode. But the sharpness in the July erosion and the spurt in imports is good news that makes that erosion look more like it is due to a rekindling for growth than to a loss in competitiveness. This report is not a clear sign of export prospects. Retail data from Germany on export orders and on industrial output has showed some weakening. The export picture does not revive those fears nor does it ease them. To be sure the German wise-man Bofinger already has been talking of the prospect of using foreign exchange intervention - a clear sign that someone is getting hurt by the strong euro. But this months EMU trade erosion looks more like it is due to the good news of improved growth as the balance erosion is mostly due to the spurt in imports. With the dangers of financial contagion lurking, this report is somewhat reassuring. That, of course, does not mean that the ECB will no longer be under pressure or that Sarkozy will stop complaining about ECB policy. But an economy on stronger footing will make the ECBs decisions somewhat easier if this hint of strength proves to be lasting.
m/m% | % Saar | ||||
Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
Balance* | (651) | 4,355 | 2,346 | 2,686 | 1,796 |
Exports | |||||
All Exports | -0.5% | 1.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 11.3% |
Food and Drinks | -- | 1.1% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% |
Raw Materials | -- | -1.4% | 5.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% |
MFG | -- | 0.9% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 9.5% |
Imports | |||||
All Imports | 3.6% | 1.1% | 22.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
Food and Drinks | -- | 0.0% | 0.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% |
Raw Materials | -- | -1.2% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 12.4% |
MFG | -- | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 7.6% |
*Mil.Euros; mo or period average |