Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a bit last week, but only by 4,000 to 319,000. A much larger increase to 325,000 had been expected by a Consensus of economists that would have reversed roughly half of the prior week's 22,000 decline. The prior week's figure was revised down slightly to 315,000.

A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 324,000 (2.7% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 6,000, reversing one third of the prior week's large 18,000 increase. That rise was revised lower from a 25,000 gain reported initially. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.

Since yearend 2006, continuing claims have risen 173,000 or by 7.2%

Payroll employment has risen 870,000 (0.6%) since yearend.

The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.0%.

The Rise in U.S. Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consequences from the Federal Reserve Bank can be found here.