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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2007
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a bit last week, but only by 4,000 to 319,000. A much larger increase to 325,000 had been expected by a Consensus of economists that would have reversed roughly half of the prior week's 22,000 decline. The prior week's figure was revised down slightly to 315,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 324,000 (2.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 6,000, reversing one third of the prior week's large 18,000 increase. That rise was revised lower from a 25,000 gain reported initially. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Since yearend 2006, continuing claims have risen 173,000 or by 7.2%
Payroll employment has risen 870,000 (0.6%) since yearend.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.0%.
The Rise in U.S. Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consequences from the Federal Reserve Bank can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/08/07 | 09/01/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 319 | 315 | 2.2% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,585 | 4.2% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |