Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley September 10, 2007
Revised data for Japan's second quarter GDP revealed a 1.2% seasonally adjusted rate of decline, in contrast to a 0.5% increase estimated earlier and a consensus of a 0.7% decline. The main culprit in the decline was a sharp drop in gross capital formation, which declined at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of almost 7%. Inventories also declined. While final private consumption increased, the annual rate of increase was smaller than in the first quarter. The first chart shows the annual rates of change for total GDP, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation.
Although small, the second quarter increase in the net exports of good and services resulted in a record 24.1 trillion 2000 chained yen as shown in the second chart.
The decline in Japan's second quarter GDP preceded the financial turmoil which has roiled world stock markets and cast doubts on world economic growth. The Japanese are now reappraising their outlook for the rest of the year. The August Economy Watchers Survey released today is not encouraging. The diffusion indexes regarding current and future conditions continue to decline, as shown in the third chart.
JAPAN: Gross Domestic Product (Trillion 2000 Chained Yen) |
Q2 2007 | Q1 2007 | Q2 2006 | Q/Q SAAR | Y/Y Chg | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 557.4 | 539.1 | 548.2 | -1.21 | 1.67 | 549.0 | 537.2 | 527.3 |
Private Consumption | 308.9 | 308.2 | 305.2 | 1.01 | 1.22 | 304.3 | 301.7 | 297.1 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation | 127.3 | 129.6 | 127.7 | -6.97 | -0.34 | 127.6 | 123.3 | 120.5 |
Change in Inventories | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -2.6* | -0.3* | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Exports of Goods and Services | 85.6 | 85.0 | 79.7 | 3.07 | 7.38 | 80.6 | 73.5 | 68.8 |
Imports of Goods & Services | 61.5 | 61.1 | 60.8 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 60.5 | 57.9 | 54.7 |
ECONOMY WATCHERS SURVEY | Aug 07 | Jul 07 | Aug 06 | Q/Q Chg | Y/Y Chg | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
Current Conditions (%) | 44.1 | 44.7 | 46.8 | -0.6* | -2.7* | 51.4 | 50.3 | 50.0 |
Future Conditions (%) | 46.5 | 46.7 | 50.0 | -0.2* | -3.5* | 52.9 | 51.5 | 51.4 |
* Differences |