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Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
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The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
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Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Robert Brusca September 4, 2007
The EMU ex-energy PPI inflation rate is excessive. It is up by 0.2% in the month and at a 2.4% pace over three-months. Still over six-month its pace had been 3.2%. That deceleration is a hopeful sign, but it still leaves the pace of the PPI above the Yr/Yr inflation rate of 2.9%. In any event the ECB inflation guideline is for inflation below 2%; having the PPI running at a pace in excess of that is not helpful.
All main sectors three-month inflation rates are above the 2% ceiling except for capital goods. The overall pace of ex-energy inflation is 2.4% for three months and 2.9% Yr/Yr. For Germany and Italy ex energy inflation is lower Yr/yr compared to the year previous period and the 3-month inflation rates each are lower that their respective six month counterpart rates. In the UK Yr/Yr ex-energy inflation is steady at 3% but over three months ex-energy inflation is lower at 2.5%.
The situation for W. Europe seems to be that inflation is on its way to behaving if only at a slow pace. Still that is something and with the weakness and concerns about subprime and the financial sector that just might be enough to help to keep the ECB’s next rate hike at bay.
| M/M | SAAR | |||||
| Euro area 13 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | Yr/Yr | Y/Y Yr Ago |
| Total ex Construction | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 6.0% |
| Excl Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| Capital Goods | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Intermediate & Capital Goods | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% |
| Energy | 0.5% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | -1.9% | 14.8% |
| MFG | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% |
| Germany | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 6.0% |
| Germany ex Energy | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| France | #N/A | 0.2% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 4.0% |
| France ex Energy | #N/A | 0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2.9% |
| Italy | 0.4% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 7.0% |
| Italy ex Energy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% |
| UK | 0.6% | 0.6% | 5.9% | -1.6% | 0.4% | 9.8% |
| UK ex Energy | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Euro area 13 Harmonized PPI excluding Construction. | ||||||
| The Euro area 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Slovenia. | ||||||
