Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec)
- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Dec)
- Germany: Hotel and Restaurant Turnover (Nov), Tax Revenues (Q3)
- Turkey: IIP, International Reserves, Foreign Trade Indexes (Nov)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
- Colombia: Manufacturing IP, Retail Sales (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Robert Brusca August 31, 2007
In the German IFO framework the biggest slippage seems to be in orders on hand, month-to-month demand, and business expectations. These measures have dropped into the 60th to 70th percentile ranges of their respective histories. These are still firm readings but not so strong. One continuing feature of interest in this report is the strength of foreign orders on hand. Foreign orders are still near their peak reading in the 98th percentile of their range. Despite this the current situation is still evaluated as strengthening and is in the 95th percentile of its range.
The IFO’s three month outlook survey is also mixed. Only order expectations for retailers are weakening and they have been crumbling steadily and rapidly for months. Employment expectations are guarded.
The IFO’s diffusion measures by sector show a sharp drop for wholesalers with conditions eroding across most sectors. Construction and retail continue to post net negative signals and they too are fading.
| Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | ||||||||
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Biz Climate | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 105.8 | 95.7 | 110.6% | 87.7% |
| Current Situation | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 111.5 | 94.8 | 117.7% | 88.2% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | -1.2% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.0% | -1.0% | 100.4 | 96.7 | 103.9% | 76.5% |
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Current Situation | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 111.3 | 92.2 | 120.7% | 95.3% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 0.9% | -1.4% | 99.1 | 96.4 | 102.8% | 73.1% |
| Activity (m/m) | |||||||||
| MFG | 1.0% | -1.9% | -3.7% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 104.7 | 96.9 | 108.0% | 85.4% |
| Demand M/M | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.8% | -3.3% | -7.0% | 0.5% | -3.7% | 99.3 | 97.1 | 102.3% | 62.2% |
| Orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.6% | -0.9% | -3.0% | 102.2 | 96.4 | 106.0% | 72.7% |
| Foreign orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 112.1 | 94.3 | 118.8% | 98.1% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices | |||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | |||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | |||||||
| Expected Activity | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile |
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 102.5 | 96.7 | 106.0% | 91.5% |
| Orders expectations | |||||||||
| Retail Orders Expectations | -1.1% | -11.6% | -10.9% | -4.6% | -10.9% | -10.5 | -17.5 | 59.9% | 72.9% |
| Wholesale | 0.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 7.8 | -14.0 | -55.8% | 84.5% |
| Export Biz Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | 102.8 | 98.4 | 104.5% | 85.6% |
| Employment Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 105.0 | 96.0 | 109.4% | 57.1% |
