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Economy in Brief
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Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
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German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
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Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca August 31, 2007
In the German IFO framework the biggest slippage seems to be in orders on hand, month-to-month demand, and business expectations. These measures have dropped into the 60th to 70th percentile ranges of their respective histories. These are still firm readings but not so strong. One continuing feature of interest in this report is the strength of foreign orders on hand. Foreign orders are still near their peak reading in the 98th percentile of their range. Despite this the current situation is still evaluated as strengthening and is in the 95th percentile of its range.
The IFO’s three month outlook survey is also mixed. Only order expectations for retailers are weakening and they have been crumbling steadily and rapidly for months. Employment expectations are guarded.
The IFO’s diffusion measures by sector show a sharp drop for wholesalers with conditions eroding across most sectors. Construction and retail continue to post net negative signals and they too are fading.
| Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | ||||||||
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Biz Climate | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 105.8 | 95.7 | 110.6% | 87.7% |
| Current Situation | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 111.5 | 94.8 | 117.7% | 88.2% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | -1.2% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.0% | -1.0% | 100.4 | 96.7 | 103.9% | 76.5% |
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Current Situation | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 111.3 | 92.2 | 120.7% | 95.3% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 0.9% | -1.4% | 99.1 | 96.4 | 102.8% | 73.1% |
| Activity (m/m) | |||||||||
| MFG | 1.0% | -1.9% | -3.7% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 104.7 | 96.9 | 108.0% | 85.4% |
| Demand M/M | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.8% | -3.3% | -7.0% | 0.5% | -3.7% | 99.3 | 97.1 | 102.3% | 62.2% |
| Orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.6% | -0.9% | -3.0% | 102.2 | 96.4 | 106.0% | 72.7% |
| Foreign orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 112.1 | 94.3 | 118.8% | 98.1% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices | |||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | |||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | |||||||
| Expected Activity | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile |
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 102.5 | 96.7 | 106.0% | 91.5% |
| Orders expectations | |||||||||
| Retail Orders Expectations | -1.1% | -11.6% | -10.9% | -4.6% | -10.9% | -10.5 | -17.5 | 59.9% | 72.9% |
| Wholesale | 0.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 7.8 | -14.0 | -55.8% | 84.5% |
| Export Biz Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | 102.8 | 98.4 | 104.5% | 85.6% |
| Employment Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 105.0 | 96.0 | 109.4% | 57.1% |
