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Economy in Brief
Canadian Retail Sales Weaken As Inflation Slows
Canada's retail sales show relatively widespread deceleration...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Strengthen
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (7.0% y/y) during September...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Growth Continues; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index dipped to 22.2 during October...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 210,000 (-8.7% y/y) during the week ended October 13...
U.K. Retail Sales: Doing Well-As-Can-Be-Expected Despite September Drop
U.K. retail sales and growth have all held up remarkably well- so far...
by Robert Brusca August 31, 2007
In the German IFO framework the biggest slippage seems to be in orders on hand, month-to-month demand, and business expectations. These measures have dropped into the 60th to 70th percentile ranges of their respective histories. These are still firm readings but not so strong. One continuing feature of interest in this report is the strength of foreign orders on hand. Foreign orders are still near their peak reading in the 98th percentile of their range. Despite this the current situation is still evaluated as strengthening and is in the 95th percentile of its range.
The IFO’s three month outlook survey is also mixed. Only order expectations for retailers are weakening and they have been crumbling steadily and rapidly for months. Employment expectations are guarded.
The IFO’s diffusion measures by sector show a sharp drop for wholesalers with conditions eroding across most sectors. Construction and retail continue to post net negative signals and they too are fading.
| Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | ||||||||
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Biz Climate | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 105.8 | 95.7 | 110.6% | 87.7% |
| Current Situation | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 111.5 | 94.8 | 117.7% | 88.2% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | -1.2% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.0% | -1.0% | 100.4 | 96.7 | 103.9% | 76.5% |
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile | |
| Current Situation | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 111.3 | 92.2 | 120.7% | 95.3% |
| Biz Expectations: Next 6-Mos | |||||||||
| MFG | -1.9% | -0.4% | -2.8% | 0.9% | -1.4% | 99.1 | 96.4 | 102.8% | 73.1% |
| Activity (m/m) | |||||||||
| MFG | 1.0% | -1.9% | -3.7% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 104.7 | 96.9 | 108.0% | 85.4% |
| Demand M/M | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.8% | -3.3% | -7.0% | 0.5% | -3.7% | 99.3 | 97.1 | 102.3% | 62.2% |
| Orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | -2.4% | -2.7% | -3.6% | -0.9% | -3.0% | 102.2 | 96.4 | 106.0% | 72.7% |
| Foreign orders on hand | |||||||||
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 112.1 | 94.3 | 118.8% | 98.1% |
| Yr/Yr percentage changes in underlying Indices | |||||||||
| IFO outlook for 3-Months ahead | |||||||||
| 3-Mos ahead | Percent: Yr/Yr | INDEX NUMBERS | |||||||
| Expected Activity | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | CURRENT | Average | Curr/Avg | Percentile |
| MFG | 2.5% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 102.5 | 96.7 | 106.0% | 91.5% |
| Orders expectations | |||||||||
| Retail Orders Expectations | -1.1% | -11.6% | -10.9% | -4.6% | -10.9% | -10.5 | -17.5 | 59.9% | 72.9% |
| Wholesale | 0.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 7.8 | -14.0 | -55.8% | 84.5% |
| Export Biz Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | 102.8 | 98.4 | 104.5% | 85.6% |
| Employment Expectations | |||||||||
| MFG | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 105.0 | 96.0 | 109.4% | 57.1% |
